MODI’S FOREIGN TIES

Narendra Modi’s foreign policy style during the last five years has been dizzying. From whirlwind visits around the globe to stadium-packed appearances abroad to selfies and bear hugs with business glitterati and world leaders alike, he has left a distinctive mark on the international stage. Not bad for a former chief minister who had little foreign policy experience and whose first national campaign barely mentioned world affairs.

Modi did not have any foreign policy experience prior to his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) taking over the reins of the country following a remarkable general election victory in 2014. As chief minister of the western state of Gujarat, he was known for his expertise in handling the economy, but after becoming prime minister, he had to prove his skills in foreign policy also. After coming to power, Modi faced a difficult task of image building. The 2002 Gujarat communal riots, in which more than 2,000 people – many of them Muslims – were killed, had left a negative mark on his role as the state's chief minister.

While Modi was Gujarat's chief minister, he was banned by Washington from traveling to the US due to his controversial human rights record. The US, however, lifted the ban after Modi became India's premier.

During NaMo’s first term, Jaishankar was instrumental in turning the prime minister’s foreign-policy vision into actionable policy. For too long, Modi believed, India had behaved as a balancing power in the world order rather than as one that proactively shapes global rules and norms. It was Jaishankar who tried to shape Indian foreign-policy priorities accordingly. By elevating Jaishankar to minister of external affairs, Modi has made it clear that, in the coming years, India will prioritize foreign policy.

Modi developed a close working relationship with Obama. After Donald Trump became America's president, India-US ties continued to flourish, with New Delhi and Washington sealing several trade and defense deals and undertaking joint military exercises.

Modi's diplomacy equally charmed the European Union. The Indian prime minister visited Berlin and Paris in 2015 and held talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Former French President Francois Hollande. In France, Modi managed to break the deadlock over the sale of 36 Rafale fighter jets.

India under PM Modi, however, has appeared to drift away from its long-time ally Russia. Although New Delhi and Moscow have cordial relations, India is now closer to Washington than ever.

On the global stage, this comes at a time when escalating tensions between the United States and China are shaking up the world order. At the same time, U.S.-Indian relations may hit a rough patch over growing disagreements on trade-related issues. The decision by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to end tariff exemptions on $5.6 billion worth of Indian exports is just the tip of the iceberg. Although New Delhi has said it “will continue to build on our strong ties with the U.S., both economic and people-to-people,” it is clear that tough times lie ahead. As Trump enters election mode, he will continue to focus on trade issues around the world. With his understanding of the American domestic political landscape and his past experience navigating it, Jaishankar is seemingly well placed to pragmatically manage growing U.S.-India tensions.

Jaishankar’s entry into the cabinet also signals Modi’s desire to shift India’s regional outlook. Last week, Modi invited representatives from the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) member states to attend his swearing-in ceremony. More than two decades old, today it covers around 21 percent of the world’s population and a combined gross domestic product of more than $2.5 trillion.

Channeling India’s regional foreign policy through BIMSTEC underlines Modi’s desire to focus on the country’s eastern frontier. The Bay of Bengal connects India to its eastern neighbors, not only to its traditional South Asian partners. By doing this, Modi has tried to redefine India’s strategic periphery, reimagining the country’s neighborhood on more favorable terms.

Overall, observers argue, Prime Minister Modi has changed India's diplomatic outlook in several ways. He has reset his country's relations with the West, especially the US, in a bid to counter China's growing influence in Asia. Modi has also taken a more aggressive stance toward Pakistan's alleged terrorism backing, and has increased engagement with partners in East and Southeast Asia. Modi has also forged stronger alliances with countries in the Middle East.

Yet these three achievements remain important works-in-progress for a successful Indian foreign policy, first in its own neighbourhood and then in the world.

- Pragun Sharma